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Demand Rebounded Faster for Assisted Living than Independent Living in 2021

The number of occupied senior living units increased during the last three quarters of 2021 — but demand for assisted living has bounced back faster than demand seen for independent living.

That’s according to a new analysis from NIC Chief Economist Beth Mace and Senior Data Analyst Omar Zahraoui.

The number of occupied senior housing units in NIC MAP’s 31 primary markets grew by 4.6% between the first quarter of 2020 and the fourth quarter of 2021, representing about 24,400 units absorbed on a net basis. The number of occupied units in the data service’s 68 secondary markets grew by 5.1% in the same period, representing about 14,500 units absorbed on a net basis.

The number of occupied units at assisted living communities contracted 8.4% and 9.0% in primary and secondary markets, respectively, between 1Q 2020 and 1Q 2021. By comparison, the number of occupied independent living units fell 6.6% and 5.6% in primary and secondary markets, respectively, during the same period.

While demand for assisted living communities fell farther at the pandemic’s outset, the product type has also been the fastest to recover during the industry’s ongoing recovery period. The number of occupied units in assisted living properties increased by 6.1% and 6.6% in primary and secondary markets, respectively during the last three quarters of 2021.

Recovery was slower for independent living properties, which saw occupied units in primary and secondary markets rise by 3.3% and 3.8%, respectively, during the same period.

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Mace and Zahraoui identified a few trends that could be driving the uneven recovery.

For one, assisted living communities often draw residents from two sources — newcomers who haven’t lived in a senior living community before, and those that arrive from other communities seeking a higher level of care — while independent living communities typically only come from outside congregate settings.

There may have been a stronger level of pent-up demand for assisted living communities, which house residents who need a higher level of care than those in more choice-based independent living communities.

Mace and Zahraoui also noted that some operators are seeing differences in demand that buck these trends, with some operators seeing stronger demand for independent living properties or vice versa.

“Individual property performance has been affected by Covid exposure, infection control protocols, acuity levels of residents, move-in and move-out velocity, operator access to capital, pressured operating margins due to low occupancy rates and staffing challenges,” they wrote. “Many of these factors have not gone away and will continue to exert influence over operator, property and metro area performance in 2022.”

The post Demand Rebounded Faster for Assisted Living than Independent Living in 2021 appeared first on Senior Housing News.

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